The Grand Finale – in the Rose Bowl of all places.  If we want to bring up history to prove anything, take a look at the Tide’s Rose Bowl record. Texas beat Bama in the Orange Bowl 45 years ago, but Namath was over, damn it, so that one is as debatable as the 1966 Sissy Bowl results. What does any of this have to do with tonight’s game? Just as much as Texas’ 5 year old Rose Bowl win, past Heisman winners or SI covers. This game will be won by the better coached team and by players who have never played in a championship game.

The Hooker Horns have been seen all over town, fondling the trophy and riding roller coasters and such. The Tide has been mostly quiet, except for that one little incident when Mt. Cody and 23 actresses from Universal Studios disappeared for 17 hours. Word is the McClain’s stomach problems developed from walking into Cody’s room and getting just a glance at the scene there.

Now on to the picks of who will win Alabama’s slaughter of Texas:

Musket: This it, for all the bacon, or, for all the beef as Alabama would have it. The Crimson Tide get a National Title like once every ten years. They haven’t won one since Gotti was convicted of murder and racketeering and frankly Tide fans are growing anxious. If you told me my team would win a National Title in 20, heck 30 years I’d exclaim, “That’s friggin’ Outstanding!”, and I’d be spared a head of sandy blond hair, sleepless nights with angst and a half empty whiskey bottle, and 18 broken television remote controls. Bama and Gene Stallings crumbled #1 Miami and Heisman Trophy winner Gino Toretta by a score of 34-13. Texas, on the other hand, challenged and defeated USC just four years ago. Propelled by Vince Young, the Longhorns gashed the Trojans for 556 yards and marched into the end zone for the game winning score with 0:19 on the clock.

This game has the potential for a wicked defensive battle. Texas has the daunting task of slowing down Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram. Recent history plays the odds against Heisman Winners in the title game; in ‘05 Reggie Bush tagged just 82 rushing yards with a TD and Fumble to his losing performance, in ‘06 Troy Smith managed just six net yards with an interception in the Buckeyes slaughterhouse, and in ‘08 Sam Bradford threw two interceptions against two TDs in their defeat. Ingram is a beast of a different form in that he is a hardcore work horse that will be denied nothing. He fights, and fights, and fights until he gets what he wants: yardage and touchdowns.

Alabama will have to be pristine on defense to combat the grizzled veteran QB Colt McCoy. McCoy’s stellar Longhorn career is highlighted by phenomenal completion percentages, monster yardage, and loads of touchdowns. Making the Texas passer even more dangerous is his deceiving speed and scramble-ability. McCoy will be dueling with the prominent Bama linebacker Rolando McClain. This is by far the best match-up in this game, possibly the best match-up of the season. McClain commands the defense like a 5 star general commands the best troops in the galaxy.

Nick Saban will have his boys amped and ready for a rumble. Texas has to find a lethal combination of running plays and short to mid-range passes similar to what Tennessee had done to the Tide to keep their defense off balance. If McClain and his crew are permitted to dig their heels in, it will be long night for McCoy. That’s what I predict. Alabama wins.

Creek: Finally, it has been a long trip home.  Can’t say that Bama didn’t have a hand in choosing the road though, so the change in Tuscaloosa is immeasurable. During the same period, Texas has returned to a level of respectability that is near Darrell Royall levels. None of that really matters now, only the last 13 games have any impact on this game.

On offense, Texas looks and is dangerous. Shipley has breakaway speed. He has also caught 70% of the passes from Colt McCoy. The TE has caught 6. If McCoy gets loose, then they have a semblance of a ground game, otherwise it is like frozen lasagna, something to pull out every now and then. I’ve read that Texas has an outstanding O line, but they have given up 30 sacks.

Bama’s offense works because of the blocking and receiving threat of Colin Peak and Julio Jones. Peak is a genuine threat in the middle and the flat. Jones is a ferocious downfield blocker and nearly always is responsible for Ingram’s extra yardage. With 3-5 talented receivers on the field at any time, the pass is always an option. Still, the Tide will depend on Ingram and Trent Richardson to pound away, the O line to push forward and take its toll on the Horn line and LBs.

Advantage: Bama

On defense, Texas has the #1 rushing D in the country. They have faced one RB and two teams in the top 25 in rushing nationally. Their DBs are fast, have good hands and go to the ball well. The DEs can get around the corners well, but there is weakness to be exploited in the middle.

Bama’s D has faced 7 spread offenses this year, with mostly outstanding results. The only real weakness is Marquis Johnson’s thumb. Teams this year have tended to pick on Marquis, but he is much improved and has handled most challenges well. Then you have Rolando McClain. It is like having a behemoth Nick Saban on the field. Ro will be on Colt’s ass like it was McCoy’s first day in prison. Where Colt goes, Rolando (or his designee) goes. Terrence Cody takes care of any potential dive threat. Bama has faced 4 runners and 7 teams in the top 25 rushing this year.

Advantage:  Bama

The Rest:

Look for the Horns to challenge Bama deep from the get go. It is tough to defend the long pass early, the defender needs to get a feel for the way a receiver moves and how he handles his routes. Look for Bama to challenge McCoy’s attempts to get outside. They kept Tebow in the pocket and virtually nullified him, except for one exceptional series. Bama will not change what they do on D, it is working all too well. The look of what they do has been tweaked, but the assignments are essentially the same. They saw the Nebraska game too.

McElroy will mix it up. He has to loosen up the Texas D to get maximum extra yardage for Ingram and Richardson. Jones is healthy for the first time this year. Peak is healthy and Maze is capable of making big plays when Texas has 2-3 guys on Julio. If Bama can keep the DEs and/or a safety out of the backfield long enough, Mc could have a big passing day. If not, 6 yards a carry twice moves the chains.

Maybe the two most important numbers – 33 and 26, Bama’s and Texas’ average time of possession. 7 minutes is nearly half a quarter. That is nice amount of time to keep McCoy and Shipley off of the field. Those guys are going to get loose sometime, they are too good not to. Lessening their opportunity is important.

Stamina and strength on the line, downfield blocking and open field tackling, timely adjustments and the zebras will decide the game. Bama wins on the first three, the fourth is anybody’s guess.

Not by more than 17, but Alabama wins.

Tags: Alabama, Bowl Championship Series, College Football, Colt McCoy, Crimson Tide, Mark Ingram, Rolando McClain, Rose Bowl, Texas

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