The best way to predict the 2009 Big East conference is to place each team on a section of a dart board, take 2 shots of bourbon, spin in a circle 10 times, and let the darts fly starting with the throw for the first place team. This method gives each team an equal opportunity in preseason ranks, but may cause bodily injury and household damage. The point is, the Big East has to be the most fascinating conference race this season because it is so wide open. This came about by the departure of high profile players on each team and the development of so many unknowns when looking at the various roster changes. It’s a virtual feeding frenzy. The Big East title is thrown out there like a loaf of bread to a school of carp. The key is finding a way to forecast the frenzy’s outcome.

Other than the dart toss, a statistical ranking can be implemented using a spreadsheet called the ‘Stat Jumbler’. The 2008 key factors implanted in the spreadsheet were offensive yardage, defensive yardage, total scoring, record, and final 2008 Sagarin Rank all measured against the team’s returning starters. The results were interesting if not unexpected:

1.) Rutgers

2.) Pitt

3.) Connecticut

4.) West Virginia

5.) Syracuse

6.) South Florida

7.) Cincinnati

8.) Louisville

It should be noted that West Virginia and Pitt were penalized due to bad offensive stats in 2008. Both are expected to rebound. Cincinnati’s stats were ruined by the departure of 10 starting defenders.

Stats are fun, but don’t always tell the true story. The true story and most significant method of preseason ranking, one that is tried and true, is the Musket Analysis. The Musket predicts two major streaks slamming to a screeching halt. This is the prophecy of a possible mad man:

1.) Rutgers (5-2) – 2009 will be the year of the Scarlet Knight; the championship dehydrated, long awaited year of the Scarlet Knight. In addition to the conference title, another long drought to be broken in 2009 is 14 year losing record to the Mountaineers. Rutgers returns all five offensive linemen in the trenches and to solidify a very talented squad. They’ll be leading the way for returning running backs Kordell Young and Jourdan Brooks from a crew of four with experience that combined for well over 1,000 yards and 16 TDs on the ground. Tim Brown had a good 2008 season as wide receiver, but a physical presence will be needed to replace Kenny Britt. In addition, Rutgers returns 7 starters from the 2008 defense.

Fatal Flaw: Rutgers has no quarterbacks with starting experience.

Paramount Weapon: Ryan D’Imperio is a brick-wall linebacker stopping run away running backs in their tracks.

Predicted Wins: Cincinnati, at Connecticut, South Florida, at Syracuse, West Virginia

Predicted Losses: Pitt, at Louisville

2.) West Virginia (5-2) – Last season Pat White and Noel Devine simply wore thin from the constant grind. The Mountaineers must find more ball carriers in 2009 to help garner the load. The West Virginia wide receivers are tall and fast and should create some major mismatches with opposing defenders, especially 6’8” slot receiver Wes Lyons. Quarterback Jarrett Brown has all the physical tools and some quality starting experience, but hasn’t carried the burden starting week in- week out.  The #1 scoring defense in the 2008 Big East not only returns nearly intact, but also regains middle linebacker Reed Williams from injury.

Fatal Flaw: The Mountaineer offensive line is young, inexperienced and was man-handled by the first team defense in spring drills.

Paramount Weapon: Chris Neild and Scooter Berry will anchor the fast, aggressive 3-3-5 defense in the trenches and allow more variety in blitzes.

Predicted Wins: at Syracuse, at South Florida, Louisville, at Cincinnati, Pittsburgh

Predicted Losses: Connecticut, at Rutgers

3.) Pitt (4-3) – The Panthers have solid talent returning everywhere but the backfield. Quarterback play has hindered the Panther offenses under Dave Wannstedt and the loss of LeSean McCoy eliminates a major piece of the offensive production. Oderick Turner and Jonathan Baldwin should combine for big numbers receiving in 2009 and display their tall, speedy game for the Big East. Running between the tackles will keep Pitt in games as it did last year, but getting the ball outside the tackles and down the field will win games in 2009. The Pitt defense will be one of, if not the best defenses in the conference. Offenses will be pressured like a baby gazelle in a python’s squeeze. Corner Back Aaron Berry anchors an extremely talented secondary capable of creating many turnovers.

Fatal Flaw: The void in production left by Lesean McCoy’s departure has no clear-cut fillers.

Paramount Weapon: Three all-conference players comprise the smothering defensive line for the Panthers.

Predicted Wins: at Louisville, at Rutgers, Syracuse, Cincinnati

Predicted Losses: Connecticut, South Florida, at West Virginia

4.) South Florida (4-3) – Raw talent, gritty play, and the desire to knock off titans has earned the Bulls big wins in the past, but depth and discipline has cost the Bulls conference championships. Gunslinger Matt Grothe is back in action for his tenth season (or so it seems) and will continue to create ulcers for opposing defensive coordinators because he can pass from the pocket, he can scramble effectively, or he can flee the pocket and make a downfield throw on the move. George Selvie has been a terror for opposing offenses, his speed and wing span makes him a dangerous defensive end bearing down on quarterbacks. The rest of the defense is swift enough to swarm opponents faster than angry hornets from a stone-struck nest.

Fatal Flaw: Four offensive line have to be replaced with fairly inexperienced players.

Paramount Weapon: A fast, attacking defensive line will reap havoc in every Big East.

Predicted Wins: at Syracuse, Cincinnati, at Pitt, and Connecticut

Predicted Losses: West Virginia, at Rutgers, and Louisville

5.) Cincinnati (3-4) – It will be extremely difficult for the Bearcats to recover from losing 11 of the defenses top 13 tacklers from the 2008 Orange Bowl team. The Bearcats secondary will most likely get torched by the physical, experienced receivers at West Virginia, Pitt, and South Florida. Rutgers offensive line will overwhelm the Bearcat defensive front with no experienced players to take-on the new 3-4 scheme. Quarterback Tony Pike was efficient for the Bearcats in 2008, but a consistent running game is desperately needed if Cincinnati is to repeat as conference champs.

Fatal Flaw: 10 of 11 defensive starters must be replaced.

Paramount Weapon: Marty Gilyard is a threat to take it to the house as a receiver, ball-carrier, and kick/punt returner.

Predicted Wins: at Louisville, at Syracuse, and Connecticut

Predicted Losses: at Rutgers, South Florida, West Virginia, and at Pitt

6.) Connecticut (3-4) – Sixth place in the Big East is not so much a knock on the Huskies as it is a testament to the competition and parody in the Big East. The Huskies will be very stout in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Offensively, quarterback Zach Fraser has the daunting task of improving on the nation’s 110^th passing offense in 2008. This feat must be accomplished while implementing the new no-huddle offense. The Huskies will move the ball on the ground, but will have to be more dynamic against the Big East defenses. Free safety Robert Vaughn will have to be heavily accounted for by offenses and is solid as the last line of defense. NOTE: For the first time ever, the Huskies are able to pull off a win against West Virginia.

Fatal Flaw: No Husky quarterback in the roster seems capable of running a no huddle spread offense.

Paramount Weapon: Linebacker Scott Lutrus covers the field like stars cover the sky on clear night. He is seemingly everywhere.

Predicted Wins: Louisville, at West Virginia, and Syracuse

Predicted Losses: at Pitt, Rutgers, at Cincinnati, and South Florida

7.) Louisville (2-6) – The bottomless pit of JuCo recruiting is eating away at the Cardinals. Instead of placing building blocks, Steve Kragthorpe seems to be stuck patching holes, especially on defense. In the 2009 recruiting class 5 of 7 JuCo players taken were on defense, that number was 5 of 9 in 2008. The issue there is the chemistry between the schemes and players is gained and lost in just one or two seasons as opposed to the four or five for recruits right out of high school. The Cardinal quarterback position has heavy competition between 4 legitimate candidates.

Fatal Flaw: The 7 returning starters on defense were close to the bottom of the conference in nearly every defensive category in 2008.

Paramount Weapon: Sophomore running back Victor Anderson proved to be a game breaker capable of tearing defenses to shreds.

Predicted Wins: Rutgers, and at South Florida

Predicted Losses: Pitt, at Connecticut, at Cincinnati, at West Virginia, and Syracuse

8.) Syracuse (1-6) – The conversion to a spread offense is typically haunted by timing issues, turnovers, and missed assignments in the first season. Even worse, the move to a spread offense seems to be occurring at the same time Big East defenses have reached the pinnacle form for spread-stoppers. The Orangemen will have to break in new quarterback Ryan Nassib with the new offensive scheme. Syracuse chunked together the conferences 5^th best rushing offense in 2008 and returns a shifty yet powerful back in Antwon Bailey. The defense was last in the conference in total defense in 2008.

Fatal Flaw: Orange Pride has taken a major hit and must be restored.

Paramount Weapon: Wide receiver Mike Williams returns to the roster from an academic suspension after posting 837 yards and 10 TDs in 2007.

Predicted Wins: at Louisville

Predicted Losses: South Florida, West Virginia, Cincinnati, at Pitt, Rutgers, and at Connecticut

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